How to Spot the Sunk Cost Fallacy in an Investigation

Peter Sutcliffe was interviewed nine times and the accent on a hoax tape counted in his favour. The tape had been played to the nation, and walking away from it would have meant admitting the enquiry had chased the wrong voice. Former senior detective Bob Pointer and private investigator Ben Cardall take the sunk cost fallacy into the incident room and the interview room, on both sides of the table.

In this episode:
- What the sunk cost fallacy is, and what theatre tickets and Concorde reveal about it
- Barry Staw's escalation research and why the most senior person in the room is most at risk
- The Yorkshire Ripper enquiry, the Wearside tape and the Byford Report
- How investigators rate the same evidence differently depending on their theory
- Spotting the sunk cost fallacy in witnesses and subjects who have committed to a story
- Why authentic dissent beats a devil's advocate, and Holmes's Norbury protocol
- Sincere listening, ORBIT and the premortem as field tools

If you have ever defended a theory because of what it cost you, subscribe and tell us in the comments which case you held onto too long.

Tags: sunk cost fallacy, escalation of commitment, tunnel vision investigation, confirmation bias, investigative interviewing, behavioural analysis, Yorkshire Ripper investigation, Byford Report, ORBIT interviewing, premortem, Sherlock Holmes deduction, Deductionist podcast

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