How to Predict Human Behaviour (and When You Can’t)

Hannah Fry went through every past season of The Traitors looking for statistical patterns, then got recruited as a traitor herself. Maths can predict human behaviour across a crowd with unnerving precision. Point it at one person and the predictions fall apart, for reasons chaos theory explains.

In this episode:
• Why crowds behave like equations, from Hannah Fry's London riots model to the near repeat burglary effect
• How geographic profiling narrows a search without naming a suspect
• What the mathematics of love leaves out, and how overfitting fools analysts
• Chaos theory done properly, with Edward Lorenz, the butterfly effect and the MusicLab experiment
• Why 160 machine learning teams still could not predict human behaviour in individuals
• Bayesian reasoning as the bridge from pattern to person, tested on the taxicab problem
• The Sally Clark case and the statistical errors that convict the innocent

Subscribe for the method behind every case, and learn to predict human behaviour without ever having to guess.

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Music provided by https://robertjohncollinsmusic.com/`

#maths #traitors #behaviour